DECISION

I had a big job during the war so big there should be no trouble recognizing September 1943 one of the most crucial assaults of the war was about to take place i stake my career on this operation and something a lot more important than that the lives of 50,000 is an instrument of flight a meteorological chart and warfare major actions are guided by many factors one of them whether the general responsible is aware that if one his decisions might depend the fate of a campaign and the lives of tens of thousands of men often it is necessary to make a decision under great pressure on the basis of inadequate information knowing that the slightest error would bring total disaster such a decision is the subject of our story the time with August 1943 the battle for New Guinea was reaching their shadow after a year of brutus looking the Allies were preparing for their assault on li the commanding general of the Allied air forces was summoned to a private session with the chief vital decisions were to be made and this man was to make most crucial decision of all the next offensive is the capture of late Wooten's ninth australian division will make an amphibious landing a full oy beach the following day general vasey 7th division will be dropped if Nazi I guess you know what's expected of you George the impossible and a little bit more your job will be to provide air cover for the amphibious force all the way to the beach cover the landing itself and contribute air support wherever necessary to the subsequent movements of the ground force happy to oblige it's just one thing what's that the Japanese forces at Rabaul and we work out number our planes for 21 I can lick one bunch but I can't lick them both right now I'll have to concentrate on one we wear try to whittle down the odds then when the big day comes I'll do everything I can to keep the Japanese forces off our convoy well George that sounds good to me but remember you have only three weeks sometime during the first week of September we're going to move up three weeks I can do a good job on we were of course that still leaves Raval hanging over our heads true any ideas no I'll try and think of something all right George keep me informed back in my office i began waiting systematically through a gallery of flight reports reconnaissance data weather statistics anything and everything remotely related to our accumulated knowledge of the local aerial status quo and i dragged on our by plotting our i seem to be getting exactly no Sir Isaac Newton was inspired they say after being hit on the head by an apple my deliverance came from a far less of spatial source smoke ordinary cigarette smoke it was a wild idea why does that ever had and I'd had some wild mom I know this sounds outlandish but suppose you were to pick a date for the lady invasion when a pod bank in the vidya straits area was so thick it blanket at all of New pretty well the Japanese at Rabaul couldn't get their planes off the ground then we'd only have we whacked to worry about with your attack of yesterday they can't have much left I'm going to keep pounding we whack right up until the day of the invader and ignore the rav all air drums completely well that's the idea that the fog take care of rebel well it's a lovely idea George but how do I know what date all this fog is going to be on the right place I think we can fix that for you general I've got some pretty good weather guesses the fog conditions aren't unusual this time of you then if we can determine the date the fog will cover the Japanese airdrome zetrov all that's the day for the invasion yes sir and I'd leave that date to my weather experts as the first order of business I assigned to weather team the critically important task of providing a long-range weather forecast of fog conditions in the vidya straits and over the island of new britain we've got to rely on the fog to keep the japanese air force at pro ball from taking off he has more planes there than I have and I can't guarantee that he won't interfere with the lay operations otherwise which is why gentlemen i underlined the need for absolute accuracy the conduct of the war depends on your predictions I see you're both wondering why I called in two other teams alright presume you're hoping for independent cooperation sir exactly captain system as I understand it the Australian Jews forecast methods quite from our own uh yes sir we predict on the pattern of what happened before drawing on statistics covering the past 50 years the captain here employs the Norwegian method based on air mass flow I don't care how you get it just deliver that fog bank sometime during the first week of September and tell me the day it's due I'll expect a forecast from each of you every day starting tomorrow well both do our best sir megginson unfortunately weather is one item we can't order to the quartermaster that'll be all gentleman good luck since august seventeenth we'd been pounding the japanese air drums at Wewak but they kept on bringing more planes in we continued the attack for Captain Schuster there was one valuable way to gather the weather David he need when we took the Japanese their breakfast schuster went along to collect first-hand information ok lieutenant I've got all the data I need you can stop the war down drive me home damn mega u-turn here I get a traffic ticket we should get out and walk if you want it all right make all pass on that ok you better hang on tight then time for us to deliver the groceries whoa and I but i think that aussie with a team on the ground safe and snug what if i did enjoy the wrong army you say son Kevin yeah help I say sergeant yes um be a good job and get me the volume for September 1926 really it's up on the top I get it myself but I've been staying here to sit down on I said if I straighten up my vertebrae fly apart or something really sir thank you oh how I envy the Yanks verse sister Hannah none of this blasted clerical work up there in the what is it they call it um Wow wild blue yonder I believe sir yeah that's it tied up already feels like a my head just hit the pillow oh you say sleep two hours men's weight all the same you bet man what man officer men captain sister and major Huggins then wait long time they're here why don't you tell me oh no General Sir you say sleep two hours will not wake house kept them fire burned down still funan way boo good soldier you know foo your unwavering devotion is gonna get me killed one of these days I take it you have something for me gentle yes sir major Huggins and I are mutually agreed on the same date for the assault September the 4th September the tour you're sure of that oh yes sir there's no doubt about it good keep on the job report to me again tomorrow morning same time beggars up thank me to the HQ sergeant you say both your weather teams have been agreeing on the date of a past week yes sir they're convinced they'll be fog over New Britain from videos to Rabaul on September 4th thick enough to keep the Japanese on the ground until late afternoon and over New Guinea nothing but blue skies from Port Moresby delay now general what's the last date when you have to have my final answer whatever date you finally pick i want at least 48 hours notice that will give us two days to load all night to make the run to hope I beach and I want your decision no later than September first all right i'll let you know the date 48 hours ahead of time right now everything points to September forth but I want to make sure very sure before I make my final decision from allied headquarters the orders what happened preparations for the massive assault were briskly implemented the cumbersome machinery of war rolled ahead gathering momentum with every passing day with every passing hour the time for my decision through closer our daily attacks on the Wewak air drones continued but we completely ignored the enemy installations to the east of the vidya straits the kids were calling it the milk run hear them tell it they could fly it in their sleep I'm not so sure some of them you what I said sir I'm afraid I'm going to have to revise my previous weather estimate September the fourth is quite out of the question the forecast is blue skies from here to Rabaul all day and you Huggins you concur with Kappa sister yes I'm very sorry you're sorry you realize gentlemen the lay operation can't wait forever it's already august the 29th and in a couple of days I've got to commit myself we appreciate that sir it's simply a question of holding off a few days though according to my current calculations September the 7th should be perfect oh no why with all due respect captain I beg to differ with you so time of the seventh is an impossible date after checking my computations sir I'm prepared to state that if the invasions to be a success at all it absolutely must be moved forward to September second 50,000 men are preparing for an invasion get out of here check your figures and report to me again tomorrow morning yes sir Vegas the sands of time we're running out for me no later than September first general within 48 hours i would have to make my decision known a wrong one and the japanese planes from Rabaul would cut our invasion forces to ribbons by this time fog on d-day wasn't just desirable it was a necessity and I had to make sure my weathermen never lost sight of the fact report to me again tomorrow morning yes sir as if I weren't aware that it was the 30th of August if anybody says September the first to me again generals permission I'll now I'll go off my bloomin rocker I say sir do you know what time it is is 1800 hours and here we've got to work right through tea time again I don't let it get around sat and if I were you some of the other times might think we will run fanatics that's right sir and so we waited the troops the empty landing craft not that waiting was easy with September first almost upon us we rehearsed the coming that SAP operation at full scale over or on an abandoned airdrome 30 miles off the coast came off without a hitch everyone felt better about the show's chances of being hit everyone except me that is I still didn't have an opening date well good evening captain but gorgeous night isn't it a lousy night haha well look at it what did I ever do to deserve and I like this it's cool and Bobby there isn't a breeze story exactly balmy how I rotten luck tomorrow tomorrow I've got to report to the general with my final forecast it was the morning of September first I hadn't had more than an occasional nap in 36 hours I felt like a mother hen trying to hatch a hand grenade well gentlemen what's the word well sir I've checked my computations forwards and backwards I do you have what have you come up with so ton of the third set new captain Schuester you still insist on the seventh no sir I now have sep tember the fifth sir originally you both favored the fourth what are you feelings about that date now absolutely not all it's quite impossible would you gentlemen mind explaining briefly how you were able to arrive at such diversion predictions well serve employing the analog method I've explored the archives of our hemispheric weather maps I've selected the one which most closely duplicates today's frontal pattern at sea level pressure the day by day sequence of maps following it without the slightest modification represents my forecast yes sir you can you can start each your self up you cancel thank you well sir I've carefully studied the large-scale pressure areas at 10,000 feet sir basing my prognostication of the zonal indices of the coming week on synoptic evidence the position and intensity of the waves in the westerlies with empirical Corrections indicate the progress of the cold front in the direction of the video streets and the date of its arrival I see your dad happy together Thank You gentleman that'll be all what would I tell the chief I promised him the date for today but what day the third fifth miscalculation and we might find ourselves with another Dunkirk and I hands there was nothing I could do but go over the material myself Oh Oh No uh general one cheap now yes yes I guess huh no point in putting it on this is not happy General Sir is not happy know you fix everything I tell my friend is si Han general can fix anything oh if blind unreasoning faith is a virtue you're a prince among men driving the GHQ whose words kept ringing in my ears you fix okay general can do anything it was a grain of truth in what he said generals are not paid to be human they're paid to be generous but two other teams had done their best they'd failed in the final analysis it was my responsibility to name a date and based on all the information at my command one day stood out in my mind sometimes you just have to play a war by ear I made my decision I promised you a date I'm handing you one September fourth this is definitely not George no more revisions no reservations this is it will be ready in the morning in September fourth good Putin will be relieved to hear it he can be in lowering his troops and equipment Oh incidentally yeah I mean to cover the show one of my bombers think you should I want to oh I know you ordered me to stay out of combat but this is something special anyway they're my kids I want to see him do this stuff you're right George but remember they're my kids too save me a seat on one of the other flames that's crazy why should you risk being dumped by some five dollar a month Japanese aviator you just told me that September fourth promises ideal weather conditions that means the Japanese will be fought in a fur ball as for Wewak you've already founded them to pieces so kindly tell me where is the big risk you don't know you can't tell things go wrong nothing's guaranteed that's right a tropical bucket picked me up on the ground believe me George it's not being shot that worries me it's the idea that when we get that rough air my stomach might get upset I hate to disgrace myself in front of the kids tell the truth general right now my own stomachs at 30,000 feet is still climbing the morning of September 4th rolled around just as I'd known prayer on my lips my heart in my throat I watched the operations get underway it was no turning back now we were a replica bleak emitted on my personal weather as a b25 strafed and bombed ahead of them the Australians of Wooten's 9th division began landing at Hope boy beach simultaneously two dozen b-24s were on their way to shackle lays defenses with 96 tons of bombs the exception of myself nobody seen the least bit pessimistic but then I alone knew the truth the fog we were kalyan to hem the Japanese in at Rabaul might not materialize it all general feast your eyes on that soup for the marnin beautiful soup birds of war Hank you seem surprised I don't doubt it lieutenant just keep your fingers crossed and pray that fog holds out till we get the show on the road all the boggle all doubts makes you so sure well I haven't all the best of authority I got it for my crew chief who got it from the dispatcher who got it from the mess sergeant will receive his information from an unimpeachable source who might that be your Chinese houseboy fool it has set the new tenant how Betty's right late that ahead Bob and hear from co-pilot anytime you're ready jr. take a rental alright driver take our home we've been looking for you general yes sir we thought you'd be glad to know no no what well you left before Huggins and I can tell you that we've finally agreed on our weather forecasts you know say sir we're prepared to state unequivocally that fog conditions in the video straights today will be ideal for the purposes of the assault yes sir ideal and furthermore for the parachute operations tomorrow at nads ab conditions look Johnny good too he fell to our forces within 10 days every phase of the operation a complete success for the Allies this was the first important rung on the ladder that was to carry us back to the Philippines one year later a letter we were able to scale thanks to the contributions of flight you you